COP27: How countries compare on carbon emissions and pledges

Headline global emissions data remains bleak. The world’s carbon emissions rose by more than 60% between 1990 and 2021, according to data provided by the climate scientists behind the Global Carbon Project initiative. This comes despite scientists first predicting the global warming phenomenon more than a century ago and UN climate conferences now taking place for some 30 years.

Overall emissions continue to rise, even as the IPCC has warned that emissions must fall by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 for the world to have a chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5°C.

Country-level emissions data is a story of development inequality. The major industrial hubs in Asia and the West produce the most overall emissions. Meanwhile, high-consumption lifestyles in the West, as well as fossil fuel-powered economies in the Middle East, give countries in those regions the greatest per capita emissions.

At the other end of the spectrum, Africa contains 17% of the world’s population but produces only around 4% of the world’s emissions, with around 80% of those coming from just six countries: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa. A major challenge for negotiators at COP27 will be to provide greater financial and technical support for African nations to be able to develop without producing the same volume of emissions that industrialised countries have produced.

There are, however, grounds for optimism. Many of the world’s most developed countries now consistently record year-on-year declines in emissions as their economies have transitioned away from heavy industry and they have decarbonised their electricity grids. The UK, for example, has seen emissions fall by 45% since 1990, with around 45% of electricity now coming from renewable power sources.

Overall, since 1990, 69 countries and territories have seen their emissions fall versus 150 that have seen emissions rise. Major industrial players including the US, Germany and Italy are among the countries that have seen declining emissions.

It is also good news that countries comprising 91% of global GDP have pledged to reach net zero by around mid-century, including all of the world’s biggest emitters. Most of these pledges only occurred in the past two years, so while their impact on real-world emissions may be limited for now, this could soon change, predicts Henning Gloystein from the risk consultancy the Eurasia Group.

"Net zero moved from being a rich country fad to a global trend in the second half of 2021,” says Gloystein. “There is a lot of legitimate criticism that net zero isn’t enough to drive change – but even if it isn’t, I think we will soon begin to see economies change much more rapidly as they chart their decarbonisation pathways.”

However, the hard truth is that real-world policy remains at loggerheads with these long-term pledges. Just 6% of all the new pledges made at COP26 are adequately supported by both policies and interim targets, found analysis of climate policy by the think tank Climate Action Tracker.

At the end of October, the annual UN Emissions Gap report found that current policies would mean global warming of around 2.5°C – a devastating prospect.

It is also good news that countries comprising 91% of global GDP have pledged to reach net zero by around mid-century, including all of the world’s biggest emitters. Most of these pledges only occurred in the past two years, so while their impact on real-world emissions may be limited for now, this could soon change, predicts Henning Gloystein from the risk consultancy the Eurasia Group.

"Net zero moved from being a rich country fad to a global trend in the second half of 2021,” says Gloystein. “There is a lot of legitimate criticism that net zero isn’t enough to drive change – but even if it isn’t, I think we will soon begin to see economies change much more rapidly as they chart their decarbonisation pathways.”

The tide must be turned, and fast. The Institute for European Environmental Policy recently found that emissions must now fall 3.4% year-on-year up to 2030 for there to be a chance of global warming remaining “well below 2°C”, which is what countries are aiming for under the Paris Agreement. Unfortunately, the world is on course for a 1% rise in emissions in 2022, according to the latest forecast from the International Energy Agency.